About rproblems
rproblems aggregates prediction market data from multiple platforms to surface trending news and identify when markets disagree. When lots of people put money on an outcome, it tells us something important is happening. When platforms disagree, it tells us something interesting is happening.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are platforms where people bet on future events. Unlike polls that ask what people hope will happen, prediction markets reveal what people think will happen when they have money on the line.
Research consistently shows prediction markets outperform polls, pundits, and models at forecasting elections, economic events, and more. When people bet real money, they tend to be honest.
Two views: Markets & Events
Markets view shows individual prediction markets ranked by trading activity. This is useful for seeing what questions people are actively betting on right now.
Events view groups related markets across platforms into canonical events. When Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus all have markets on the same topic, we combine them to show:
- Consensus probability: The volume-weighted average across all platforms
- Divergence: How much platforms disagree (in percentage points)
- Source count: How many platforms are tracking this event
High divergence events are particularly interesting - they represent opportunities where different crowds have reached different conclusions.
How to read the odds
Each story shows a probability - what the market thinks the chance of something happening is.
These aren't predictions from experts or algorithms - they're the aggregated beliefs of thousands of people with skin in the game.
Why aggregate multiple platforms?
- Different crowds: Each platform has different users with different information and biases
- Arbitrage detection: When platforms disagree significantly, it may signal an opportunity
- Robustness: Consensus across multiple platforms is more reliable than any single source
- Coverage: Different platforms list different markets - aggregation gives a fuller picture
Data sources
We aggregate data from four leading prediction market platforms:
- Polymarket - Crypto-based prediction market with high liquidity
- Kalshi - CFTC-regulated US prediction market
- Manifold - Play-money market with broad coverage
- Metaculus - Forecasting platform focused on accuracy
Market data is refreshed every few minutes. Events are matched across platforms using title similarity and entity extraction.
Why use prediction markets for news?
- Signal over noise: High trading volume indicates real interest and importance
- Skin in the game: People who bet money research more carefully
- Real-time updates: Markets react faster than traditional news
- Quantified uncertainty: See exactly how confident the crowd is
Disclaimer
This site is for informational purposes only. Probabilities reflect crowd sentiment, not certainty. Not financial advice. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with any of the prediction market platforms listed.